AquaRisk transforms groundwater monitoring data into probabilistic risk intelligence — giving large-scale operators and asset managers the clarity to act before risk materializes.
Groundwater risk is not a geological abstraction — it is a capital allocation problem. AquaRisk quantifies it in terms that boards can act on.
Likelihood that groundwater levels breach critical thresholds within a defined horizon, expressed as exceedance probability across 2,000 simulations.
Monte Carlo engineMaximum expected financial loss attributable to groundwater stress under adverse scenarios, modeled at the 95th percentile confidence interval.
Downside exposure metricProprietary composite index combining exceedance probability, decline rate, proximity to threshold, and forecast volatility into a single 0–100 score.
Proprietary AquaRisk indexLive simulation with real model outputs. No login required — explore the full risk dashboard below.
Simulated data for demonstration. Access the full platform with your own well data.
A ten-stage analytical pipeline that transforms well-level time series into probabilistic risk intelligence and capital optimization guidance.
Precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration from the Copernicus ERA5 dataset — 80+ years of global coverage, updated daily. Works anywhere in the world without additional configuration.
Three parallel forecasting approaches — trend decomposition, SARIMA, and gradient-boosted regression — combined via weighted ensemble for robust, bias-corrected projections.
2,000 AR(1)-correlated simulations per asset generating cumulative breach probability curves, P5–P95 uncertainty bands, and time-to-breach distributions.
Four defined scenarios — Baseline, Climatic Stress, Production Expansion, Sustainability — with breach probability and W-VaR calculated independently for each.
Determines the minimum pumping reduction required to bring breach probability below a target threshold, expressed as a percentage of current extraction rate.
Risk scores aggregated across all monitored assets into a single executive dashboard — with per-asset breach timelines and capital exposure ranking.
Submit historical groundwater level data directly via our interactive entry form or upload a CSV. No proprietary sensor required.
ERA5 climate data for your coordinates is automatically retrieved and merged with your well history. Our multi-model ensemble and 2,000-run Monte Carlo engine then generates breach probability curves, ACEI™ scores, and W-VaR estimates across all four scenarios.
Explore scenario comparisons, uncertainty bands, threshold crossing probabilities, and portfolio-level exposure in a clean executive interface.
Each ACEI™ category carries a specific operational advisory with quantified pumping optimization guidance — from monitoring to immediate capital review.
Predicting the exact water level is the wrong goal. What matters to a farm operator is knowing when the risk becomes unacceptable — early enough to act. We trained AquaRisk on data from two real wells in Tulare County, California, then measured whether it correctly identified the years of critical risk. It did — in both cases, with years of advance warning.
Subscription plans designed for agricultural enterprises, industrial operators, and institutional asset managers with material groundwater exposure.
Join operators who have moved from passive monitoring to active, intelligence-driven groundwater risk management.